The provision for for events are usually built in the system – especially if they are cyclical in nature. The larger unlikely but impactfull events can come from a deeper knowledge of the industry. My colleague who is an economist used to factor in a el nino into the modelling – decades down the track. I think similarly, a prudent measure of the financial position of companies might involve incorporating the impact of a similar covid situation. It may become a stress testing point and also built as an assumption.
